Barclays is back on the key events to watch this week to trade Forex.
«We believe that the evolution of the USD will largely depend on the escalation of geopolitical risk, while the recent comments from Trump could skew risks to the downside.
If geopolitical tensions increase, we believe that USD is going to over-perform in the face of the currency high yield (strong beta), but the reverse will be true vis-à-vis the currencies of refuge. The relations of the United States with Russia on the one hand, and North Korea, of the other, will be monitored in the coming weeks.
In addition, the recent comments from Trump on the strength of the Dollar could signal the reluctance of the new administration to implement policies that could further strengthen, weakening, therefore, the prospects of the Dollar rise for the next few months. However, the uncertainty remains strong, and it is at this stage difficult to draw a baseline scenario, fiscal policy and trade.
In this regard, we believe that USD should remain under pressure this week in the face EUR, GBP, JPY and CHF, and the balance in the face of commodity currency (AUD, NZD, CAD, etc.).
On the economic calendar this week, there will be no major release to watch «